Disney Toybox has produced many toys based on the Marvel Cinematic Universe version of the comic characters, so it would not be a surprise for them to make toys for the streaming shows. What makes this toy even less likely to be based on the comic is the two plates on Sam’s wrists, which he has never had in the comics; they are unique to his MCU design as Falcon
Reddit user /u/FewWatermelonlesson0 has posted a supposed Disney Toybox prototype figure for what will be Sam Wilson’s Captain America costume in The Falcon and the Winter Soldier.
The figure is incomplete, with only the torso, hands, and legs having any primary coloring. The molding itself seems completed with the star embedded on the figure’s chest being the biggest and most obvious clue that points to Sam being in some variant of Captain America’s costume.
Due to the immense lack of coloring, it is hard to discern the final design for Wilson’s costume as Captain America. However, it will likely resemble the 2014 variant of the Captain America costume he wore in the comics, when he first wielded the shield as Rogers’ successor.